Natalya P. Gulyaeva
Sibirian Federal University, Russia

Socio-demographic problem of modern society: age structure, migration and labour force
Introduction
In this paper examined problems connected the second demographic transition: generations replacing, unequal population growth on the world, changing sex-age structure in developed and developing countries; migration of labor force between different parts of the peace and general dynamic on the global labor market. The main points of issue – why today situation is such a thing and what is possible ways of its’ shifting in the future.
Materials and Methods 
As basic information it used data of demographic statistic open published by U.S. Census Bureau, UNESCO, the World Bank and OECD. It is comparing important population’s rates, population structures among countries’ groups and moving of population.
It is offering using original model of balance outlays/income of generation. There are three sections: in the first – before capable age – outlays are more than income; in the second - capable age - income become more; and in the third – after capable age - outlays are more again.
Figure 1. Balance model of outlays/income of generation.

Balance is a difference of receipts which people in certain age carry to them household, and costs exhausted by household to any of family member. 
The receipts maybe is money received by any way: salary, scholarship, pension or other social transfers, securities gain, business and so on. The profit is not in cash only. There are probable variants: housework, care of children or nursing, work in garden or farm for natural product and so on.
The outlays include costs for education, health protection, safety, taxes, keeping children and other adjective family members.
In the first section – “childhood and youth” – income of generation is little (in the beginning is zero) and spending is much more. That’s way the balance of revenue and expenses is negative.  
By age increasing the balance is change. It tends to zero because the profit is growing. In the first it is non-monetary and during the time it become as money. The curve lifts and cross the horizontal axis. In zero point outlays is equal income and this point is the starting of self-supporting life.
 In the second section – “adult’ – profit become more then spend and chart is rising more than more difference between income and outlays. The curve slope going to some maximum point (difference is greatest here) and turning down because costs amount to more important part of the balance as long as it become equal to profit and cross horizontal axis once again.
After that the third period - “senility” - is beginning. The chart decreases more and more on a vertical scale and it can go down to death on horizontal.
This model has wide range for using. You have to, as state above it is exercisable on generation analysis both individual or macro-society level.  
In the last cause we can value parity of share of able-bodied age population (the second section on the chart) and share of disabled ages (the first and the third parts on the chart). It is so important for appraisal situation in labor resource sphere in real time and in perspective.  
Results and discussion
In modern society the second demographic transition leads up to increasing of general lifetime especially in elder ages. Specific weight of first and third sections is growing so much by rising of investment to children and elder people.
In the beginning we must deal how much is expenditure in the first section and what it is changing in time. 
If we are looking to demographic dependency by children then it decline (v. table 1). 
However the quantity of children cut down the costs of childhood go ap. There are more important of expenditure for childhood and youth in education, health and care shares. Take for analyses educational outlays as it is most specific for this period of life. 
The education costs rises world over as in general as share of GDR as per capita (v. tables 2, 3).
Table 1. Demographic dependency by children on 100 adults in developed countries
State	1950	1955	1960	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	
Australia	41	46	49	48	46	43	39	36	33	32	31	29	28	
Germany	35	31	32	35	37	34	28	23	23	24	23	21	20	
Spain	41	42	43	43	45	44	41	36	30	24	22	21	21	
Italy	40	38	38	37	38	38	34	29	23	22	21	21	21	
Russia	45	40	47	47	40	34	32	34	34	32	26	21	20	
USA	42	48	51	50	46	39	34	32	33	34	33	31	30	
France	34	38	43	41	40	38	35	32	31	30	29	28	28	
Japan	59	55	47	38	35	36	35	32	26	23	21	21	21	

 Table 2. Index of total public expenditure on education in constant prices (2000 year = 100) in developed countries
	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	
Germany	97.9	100	101.9	106.8	106.6	105.4	104.8	105.3	109.8	112.7	
Spain	97.4	100	102.5	105.6	109.6	112.5	116.	121.6	128.4	137.6	
Italy	94.8	100	108.8	103.9	106.7	104.5	101.8	111.0	102.0	107.6	
USA	100.4	100	114.4	115.2	119.9	116.7	115.1	126.4	126.5	130.7	
France	92.8	100	100.4	100.4	101.7	102.3	101.8	103.1	105.4	105.3	
Japan	97.5	100	101.0	102.1	104.0	103.9	102.7	103.1	104.4	105.9	
Table 3. Expenditure of total public expenditure on education (as % of GDP and % of GDR per capita) in developed countries
	as % of GDP	(% of GDR per capita)	
		primary	secondary	tertiary	
	2000	2005	2008	2000	2005	2008	2000	2005	2008	2000	2005	2008	
Australia	4.7	4.7	4.4	15.9	17.0	16.8	13.3	15.2	14.4	25.6	21.5	19.8	
Germany			4.6		16.1	15.6		20.61	21.8				
Spain	4.3	4.2	4.6	1.5	19.0	20.3	23.2	23.3	25.8	20.5	22.7	27.2	
Italy	4.5	4.4	4.6	23.2	23.0	24.4	26.6	26.7	26.7	26.6	22.2	25.0	
USA		5.3	5.5	19.1	20.4	22.4	22.7	22.8	24.7	30.2	23.1	21.1	
France	5.7	5.7	5.6	17.9	17.9	18.0	29.1	27.9	27.8	29.2	33.2	35.8	
Japan	3.7	3.5	3.4	21.6	22.2	21.5	21.1	22.4	22.3	17.7	19.2	20.9	
1 – 2006
Nevertheless there are insignificant decline as persantages in some countries we can observed worldwide increasing educational expenditure as cash. 
At the same time the period of education becomes longer. Now the duration of compulsory education in developed countries is near ten years and more (v. table 4). It means that the begining of self-supporting life moved to older age.

Table 4. Duration of compulsory, primary and secondary level of education in 2010 in developed countries.
	Compulsory education	Primary level of education	Secondary level of education	
Australia	11	7	6	
Germany	13	4	9	
Spain	11	6	6	
Italy	9	5	8	
Russia	11	4	7	
USA	12	6	6	
France	11	5	7	
Japan	10	6	6	

Table 5. Demographic dependency by elderly on 100 adults in developed countries
State	1950	1955	1960	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	
Australia	12	13	14	14	13	14	15	15	17	18	19	19	20	
Germany	14	16	17	19	22	23	24	21	22	23	24	28	31	
Spain	11	12	13	13	16	17	18	19	20	22	24	24	25	
Italy	13	13	14	15	17	19	20	19	22	24	27	30	31	
Russia	10	10	10	10	12	13	15	14	15	18	18	19	19	
USA	13	14	15	16	16	16	17	18	19	19	19	18	19	
France	17	18	19	19	21	22	22	20	21	24	25	25	26	
Japan	8	9	9	9	10	12	13	15	17	21	25	30	35	
Ergo we can see increasing of educational expenditure although declining quantity of next generations simultaneously. The curve in the first section decline.
On the other hand otlays in the third period – senility – is growing very much. In the first demographic dependency by elderly rising during the second half of XX century and in first decade XXI (v. table 5, 6). Now it is comparable with demographic dependency by children in some developed countries.

Table 6. Age structure in developed countries 
	2005	2010	
	0-14	15-64	65 and  over	0-14	15-64	65 and over	
Australia	19,8	67,2	12,9	18,6	67,9	13,5	
Germany 	14,45	66,92	18,63
	13,7	66,1	20,3	
USA	20,48	67,11	12,41	20,2	67	12,8	
Japan	13,71	65,28	21,01	13,5	64,3	22,2	
Spain	14,50	68,71	16,79	14,5	67,4	18,1	
Italy	14,19	66,59	19,21
	13,5	66,3	20,2	
France	18,45	64,83	16,42	18,6	65	16,4	
Take into consideration that rising of lifetime is not rising duration of labor period as it would seem. And, there under there is prolongation statutory age of retirement in some countries.  No, we can watch opposite process: people don’t wish to work so long. In fact the middle age of retirement is younger than statutory age of retirement (v. table 7).
Table 7. Age of retirement in some developed states.
	statutory age of retirement	Middle age of retirement in fact	Expectancy life duration after retirement	
	male	female	male	female	male	female	
Australia	65	63	64	62	19	28	
Germany	65	65	63	61	20	25	
Spain	65	65	62	63	22	24	
Italy	65	60	61	61	22	26	
USA	65	65	64	64	17.5	21	
France	60	60	58	59	24.5	28	
Japan	65	65	69	66	14	22	

At the same time expectancy life duration after retirement become longer and expenditure to old age pension growing. As for childhood we took educational expenditure as specific in this period the pension indicators are best for senility. 
The pension costs rises world over as in money as share of GDR (v. tables 8, 9).

Table 8. Public expenditure on old age pension at current price in national currency in millions
	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2007	
Australia	4 622.3	7 514.1	11 533.1	17 867.8	25 137.6	31 364.0	37 615.2	
Germany	75 182.2	94 347.1	120 219.7	147 141.8	180 827.5	206 655.2	210 115.2	
Spain	4 432.6	10 260.6	22 508.6	36 231.9	50 533.1	68 847.1	64 420.3	
Italy	14 648.3	38 507.0	57 322.0	87 847.0	132 220.0	164 064.0	180 051.0	
USA	138 670.9	216 438.5	290 828.6	387 036.2	490 661.5	644 653.0	728 159.9	
France	33 347.2	63 095.8	93 347.4	124 137.1	148 128.0	181 778.2	203 455.0	
Japan	7 225 494.1	12 326 016.2	17 799 279.1	25 318 554.4	31 228 375.4	37 322 992.4	38 645 886.6	

Table 9. Public expenditure on old age pension as a percentage of GDP
	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2007	
Australia	3.1	2.9	3.3	3.9	4.7	4.3	4.3	
Germany	9.7	9.8	9.4	8.0	8.8	9.2	8.7	
Spain	4.6	5.8	7.2	8.3	8.2	8.0	6.5	
Italy	7.2	9.0	8.3	9.3	11.2	11.6	11.7	
USA	5.2	5.3	5.2	5.4	5.1	5.2	5.3	
France	7.6	8.6	9.2	10.6	10.5	10.9	11.1	
Japan	3.0	3.9	4.1	5.3	6.9	8.6	8.8	

Ergo: expenditure in senility period growing and the curve in the third section decline.
 In addition for all period it observed rising outlays on health (v. tables 10, 11). This kind of social cost reduces general balance considerably and the maximum point in second period is not as higher as be able.  
As shown above we can see expenditure growing at all trends of social consuming. What about production? 

Table 10. Public expenditure on health, /capita, US$ purchasing power parity
	1990	1995	2000	2005	2009	
Australia	790,5	1057,2	1514,5	1992,9	2342,51	
Germany	1344,3	1851,6	2129,6	2576,9	3242,3	
Spain	685	858,9	1101,1	1600,9	2258,6	
Italy	1077,7	1084	1496,5	1917,2	2443	
USA	1600,9	1707,3	2060,2	2953,6	3794,9	
France	1106,3	1673,2	2026,8	2606,3	3100,2	
Japan	865,4	1278,7	1594,9	2031,9	2324,61	
1 – in 2008

Table 11. Total expenditure on health as a percentage of gross domestic product
	2006	2007	2008	2009	
Australia	8,5	8,5	8,7	..	
Germany	10,6	10,5	10,7	11,6	
Spain	8,4	8,5	9,0	9,5	
Italy	9,0	8,7	9,0	9,5	
USA	15,8	16,0	16,4	17,4	
France	11,0	11,0	11,1	11,8	
Japan	8,2	8,2	8,5	..	
In the beginning we are analyze age structure of developed countries as a labor structure, as a structure consumer and productive people (v. table 6). Apparently the share of non-labor people increase on condicional that share of next labor generation is downing.
In fact, modern developed states are less investing to tomorrow than paying to yesterday and it is very unhappy. During some following decades young generations inputting labor market shall less, lees and less. In that time increasing quantity of non-labor people (not so many children than elderly) sell more, more and more. In result consumer people shall more then productive people. How is possible restoring labor reserve? Modern developed states are solving this problem by migration from developing countries. In this time share of working migrants rising permanently in majority states. Developing countries are greatest supplier of labor force to the world market.  (v. table 12, 13, 14).
On Eurostat data European population growth was generated by migration: 80,7% of all and it was near of 1650 thousands people. Today more than 5,5 % of all European population are citizens of other states.  

Table 12. Inflows of foreign population thousands
	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	
Australia	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
Permanent	 107,1	 127,9	 119,1	 123,4	 146,4	 161,7	 176,2	 189,5	 203,9	 222,6	
Temporary	 224,0	 245,1	 240,5	 244,7	 261,6	 289,4	 321,6	 368,5	 420,0	 474,8	
France	 91,9	 106,9	 124,2	 136,4	 141,6	 135,9	 135,1	 128,9	 136,0	 126,2	
Germany	 648,8	 685,3	 658,3	 601,8	 602,2	 579,3	 558,5	 574,8	 573,8	 606,3	
Italy	 271,5	 232,8	 388,1	..	 319,3	 206,8	 181,5	 252,4	 286,2	..	
Japan	 345,8	 351,2	 343,8	 373,9	 372,0	 372,3	 325,6	 336,6	 344,5	 297,1	
Russian Federation	 359,3	 193,5	 184,6	 129,1	 119,2	 177,2	 186,4	 287,0	 281,6	 279,9	
Spain	 330,9	 394,0	 443,1	 429,5	 645,8	 682,7	 803,0	 920,5	 692,2	 469,3	
United States	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	
Permanent	 841,0	1 058,9	1 059,4	 703,5	 957,9	1 122,4	1 266,3	1 052,4	1 107,1	1 130,8	
Temporary	1 249,4	1 375,1	1 282,6	1 233,4	1 299,3	1 323,5	1 457,9	1 606,9	1 617,6	1 419,2	

The some part of migrants settle on new motherland, create family and, in fact, it make better for demographic structure developed country, but could doing any social, cultural and politic problem today and in the future.
There are men younger and middle age among migrants. The share 20-39 years old is 41%, including 25-34 years old – 22 % and the share people in 65 and more is 9% only.
Hereby developed countries receive labor force and at expense of them increase positive part of balance. The negative parts remain for developing countries. The developing countries investing to social reproduction (and expanding it – v. table 15), but they losing a great part of human research in labor age.
As in developed countries developing states invest to education more and more. Meanwhile educational expenditure as % of GDP have stable trend to growth outlays for some level of educational % of GDR per capita can fluctuate and decline sometimes (v. table 15). In our means it’s by international and national economic conjuncture and the change of priority educational national policy. For example, declining tertiary educational costs can be generated by outflow students to abroad (v. table 16).

Table 13. Inflows of foreign workers thousands
	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	
Australia											
Permanent	 32,3	 35,7	 36,0	 38,5	 51,5	 53,1	 59,4	 60,8	 65,4	 69,5	
Temporary	 39,2	 36,9	 33,5	 36,8	 39,5	 48,6	 71,2	 87,3	 110,6	 101,3	
France											
Permanent	 6,9	 9,8	 8,5	 7,4	 7,6	 9,4	 10,9	 17,6	 23,8	 22,5	
Temporary	 7,5	 9,6	 9,8	 10,1	 10,0	 10,4	 10,7	 9,9	 9,9	 5,5	
Germany	 333,8	 373,8	 374,0	 372,2	 380,3	..	 30,1	 29,2	 30,7	 26,2	
Italy	 58,0	 92,4	 139,1	..	..	 75,3	 69,0	 150,1	 145,1	..	
Japan	 129,9	 142,0	 145,1	 155,8	 158,9	 125,4	 81,4	 77,9	 72,1	 53,5	
Russian Federation								1 189,0	1 343,6	1 052,3	
Spain	 172,6	 154,9	 97,6	 73,1	 155,0	 643,3	 101,8	 102,5			
United States											
Permanent	 106,6	 178,7	 173,8	 81,7	 155,3	 246,9	 159,1	 162,2	 166,5	 144,0	
Temporary	 355,1	 413,6	 357,9	 352,1	 396,7	 388,3	 444,4	 503,9	 449,9	 348,9	

Table 14. Surplus emigration over immigration in developing countries thousands. 
State	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	
Brazil		16,0	92,0	99,9	100,0	499,8	499,9	
Egypt	848,4	696,6	651,8	1109,2	945,7	370,8	346,9	
India		361,7	13,6	127,4	512,8	1923,2	2999,9	
China	428,3	258,0	236,3	823,7	677,4	2298,1	1888.1	
Indonesia	63,7	78,2	263,8	719,9	775,9	1184,3	1293,1	
Columbia	272,0	246,0	235,0	250,0	150,0	120,1	120,0	
Zimbabwe	101,5	141,5	120,5	191,8	200,0	700,0	900,0	
Table 15. Expenditure of total public expenditure on education (as % of GDP and % of GDR per capita)
	as % of GDP	(% of GDR per capita)	
		primary	secondary	tertiary	
	2000	2005	2008	2000	2005	2008	2000	2005	2008	2000	2005	2008	
													
Brazil	4.0	4.5	5.4	10.7	15.4	18.5	10.3	13.1	19.5	55.5	35.0	29.62	
Niger	3.2	3.31	3.8		28.01	27.1		45.11	49.6		36.31	39.9	
India	4.4	3.1		14.5	8.7		24.8	16.2		30.1	56.2		
Tunisia	6.8	7.2	6.9	15.4	20.9		26.7	24.2		78.8	55.9	50.7	
Namibia	7.9	6.01	6.4	21.6	13.4	15.6	33.0	18.81	15.9	152	1171		
Columbia	3.5	4.0	3.9	11.9	15.4	12.5	12.9	14.5	14.9	29.6	19.4	26.3	
1 – 2006
Table  16. Foreign students enrolled
	2005	2007	2009	
Australia	177034	211526	257637	
United Kingdom	394624	459987	498998	
Spain	45603	59814	84990	
Italy	44921	57271	65873	
USA	590167	595874	660581	
France	236518	246612	249143	
Japan	125917	125877	131599	

Some of migrants return to motherland then they can’t compete with a new migrant generation on labor market – they are return as social dependency.   
Why developing countries are willing to non-equal change? The main reason is the prime commodity which they can offer on world market is labor force. And its price in rich countries is higher as in origin country. 
It validated by World Bank investigations:  “Worldwide remittance flows are estimated to have exceeded $414 billion in 2009, of which developing countries received $307 billion (This represents a small decline of 6 percent from the level in 2008). The true size, including unrecorded flows through formal and informal channels, is believed to be significantly larger. Recorded remittances are more than twice as large as official aid and nearly two-thirds of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries.
In 2009, the top recipient countries of recorded remittances were India, China, Mexico, the Philippines, and Poland. As a share of GDP, however, smaller countries such as Tajikistan (50 percent), Tonga (38 percent), Moldova (31 percent), the Kyrgyz Republic (28 percent), and Lesotho (27 percent) were the largest recipients in 2008.
Rich countries are the main source of remittances. The United States is by far the largest, with $46 billion in recorded outward flows in 2008. Russia ranks as the second largest, followed by Switzerland and Saudi Arabia”.
However this situation can change. During the time backward countries will go to industrial society and reproductive activity of them will be such as developed states now: children are less and senile people are more. (v. table 17, 18). 

Table  17. Demographic dependency by children on 100 adults in developing countries
State	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	
Brazil	65	62	58	52	45	42	38	
Egypt	78	77	74	68	61	53	50	
India	70	67	65	61	57	52		
China	60	48	42	41	38	31	27	
Indonesia	74	68	61	54	48	43	40	
Columbia	74	66	62	57	53	48	44	
Zimbabwe	102	98	91	84	76	72	68	

Table  18. Demographic dependency by elderly on 100 adults in developing countries
State	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	
Brazil	7.6	8	8.5	9.5	10.4	
Egypt	6.7	7.2	7.4	7.6	7.9	
India	6.4	6.6	6.9	7.3	7.6	
China	9.1	9.6	10.4	10.8	11.3	
Indonesia	6.2	6.6	7.1	7.8	8.2	
Columbia	7.3	7.4	7.6	8	8.6	
Zimbabwe	5.8	6.1	6.3	6.8	7.4	

This trend is analogous with developed countries: grow share of elderly people and reduce part of children ages. Better age structure explained by later beginning of demographic transition therefore change didn’t have time show themselves completely. In fact take into consideration that globalization and modernization processes involving developing countries in world industrial economic system we can suppose changing age structure in these states as developed countries not far in the future. It’s objectively and the question is in time.
Conclusion 
As result it will be diminution of labor force in general and, as implication, produce declining in the time of conserve ore rising of consumption level. If this trend will be, deficit of balance outlays/income will more and more. What’s the answer? Prolongation of   capable age in legally is necessary solution but it is not enough. Only increasing of share of second section in the offering model can will way out.
Acknowledgments
The author extends appreciation to:
-	 Administration of Sibirian Federal University for finance supporting;
-	Professor Rem Grigorevich Hlebopros for the main idea of this paper presented by him to author;
-	My family for encouragement and understanding.