ACSPRI Conferences, RC33 Eighth International Conference on Social Science Methodology

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Socio-demographic problem of modern society: age structure, migration and labour force

Natalya P. Guliaeva

Building: Law Building
Room: Breakout 3 - Law Building, Room 104
Date: 2012-07-10 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM
Last modified: 2012-06-19


In this paper examined problems connected the second demographic transition: generations replacing, unequal population growth on the world, changing sex-age structure in developed and developing countries; migration of labor force between different parts of the peace and general dynamic on the global labor market. The main points of issue – why today situation is such a thing and what is possible ways of its’ shifting in the future.
It is offering using original model of balance outlays/income of generation. There are three sections: in the first – before capable age – outlays are more then income; in the second - capable age - income become more; and in the third – after capable age - outlays are more again. In modern society specific weight of first and third sections is growing so much by rising of investment to children and increasing of lifetime. Now developed countries exploit labor force not only themselves, bat with using migrants from developing countries. At the expense of it is refunding deficit generated by totality of all sections in the model for developed states.
Developing countries are greatest supplier of labor force to the world market. However this situation can change. During the time backward countries will go to industrial society and reproductive activity of them will be such as developed states now: senile people are more or equal then people in adult ages and children. Modern developed states solve this problem by migration from developing countries, but if developing countries will go to such point then this solution will not opportunity.
As result it will be diminution of labor force in general and, as implication, produce declining in the time of conserve ore rising of consumption level. If this trend will be, deficit of balance outlays/income will more and more. What’s the answer? Prolongation of capable age in legally is necessary solution but it is not enough. Only increasing of share of second section in the offering model can will way out.

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